Finally the author will provide recommendations on which techniques might better fit cyber attribution, and how those could help the analyst in countering cognitive biases during the attribution process. The author will discuss how those techniques might be applied to improve the current approach of cyber attribution by better evaluating the information sources’ reliability, considering alternative hypotheses, and reporting the identified uncertainty by following the earliest standards set by the IC. Next, the author will discuss some practices in Intelligence Analysis like source evaluation, estimative terminology, and some Structured Analytic Techniques (SAT), including Deception Detection, and Analysis of Competing Hypotheses. The author will then highlight current limits and gaps of such practices. To achieve this, the author will first discuss the current approach used by researchers and analysts while linking cyber-attacks to specific threat actors. The objective of this research is exploring if the latest advances in the field of Intelligence Analysis may be used to better assess and thus reduce, the uncertainty and bias around attributing cyber-attacks to physical entities. Because the cyber space is now considered a new battlefield to conduct military operations, it is reasonable to research the possibility of implementing the same investigative techniques used for uncovering terrorist attacks or traditional espionage operations. Although state-sponsored cyber-attacks currently represent a new field of interest, their investigation may be improved through the use of the same analytic techniques that are currently taught and adopted within the American Intelligence Community (IC). In this research, the author explored the rationale behind the process of attributing responsibility of cyber-attacks to physical entities.
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